This week I'd like to share a few points of data regarding the visible church in the United States over the last few years. While the majority of the data is post-March 2020, surprisingly some of the data is consistent and also from prior to Covid-19-related shutdowns in 2020.
I hope this data encourages you the same way getting back an exam from a math class was an encouragement to me many years ago...more on that later.
Data helps to tell a story. As one information technology professional shared with me years ago: "everyone can work in IT. To be a stand out in IT you have to be able to use your data to tell non-IT people a story". Today and throughout this week I'm sharing some data. In a future discussion, I'll tell you a story with the data.
Church attendance
According to data from April and May of 2020 from the Barna Group, "one-in-three practicing Christians" completely dropped out of the church during the pandemic of COVID-19. (Click here for the study One in Three Practicing Christians Has Stopped Attending Church During COVID-19 - Barna Group). One comment from the above report cites the demographics of church attenders: "While we can’t report on Elders on their own here due to low sample size, it’s important to note that the Elder and Boomer groups combined makeup over half of the practicing Christian population in the U.S (56%)."
Another study showed that the percentage of adults aged 18+ who attend religious services has dipped by 6% from 2019-2021:
This statistic is similar to the Barna group finding of a decline in online church attendance based on different age groups during April and May of 2020. The following figure 2 displays a counter-intuitive general trend that the younger demographics of Millenials and Gen Xers, were more likely to stop attending online church than boomers. While many have thought that "younger people" would receive the new trend of "online church", the numbers show the opposite. The "younger people" were more likely to stop attending altogether:
According to a report by Gallup 2020 was the lowest reported year for Americans belonging to a church, synagogue, or mosque. This data point shows a steady decline for about the last 20+ years. Prior to 1999 Americans were typically for the most part members of a church, synagogue, or mosque. Since 1999, a steep and sharp, steady decline in membership is tangibly noticeable via Gallup's research:
Age demographics reveal some unique aspects of church attendance trends. The Gallup poll from Figure 3 also had this to say regarding age and church membership: "The decline in church membership, then, appears largely tied to population change, with those in older generations who were likely to be church members being replaced in the U.S. adult population with people in younger generations who are less likely to belong."
What we Americans have lived through in the last decade, is nothing short of a massive shift. Arthur Zuckerman has compiled a vast amount of observational stats for a piece at comparecamp.com and has this to say regarding the "shift" that has occurred in attendance:
"In 2009, those who attend church services around once or twice a month exceeded those who attend church services only occasionally or not at all
A few summary statements of this data regarding church attendance:
- Americans have been attending church less than they used to.
- Americans are not always more likely to attend a church simply because of an online presence.
- Americans are now much less likely of becoming members of organized faith communities than decades prior.
I hope this doesn't discourage you. I hope this data is a source of encouragement. I hope this is a source of encouragement in realizing what your church is experiencing at the moment is not a unique, solitary experience. Chances are your local body is missing so and so who hasn't attended since Covid-19 began. Your local body is missing so and so who used to be a somewhat regular attendee, but now only infrequently stops by. Your local body is missing so and so who hasn't moved, hasn't started a new job, and hasn't had any major fallout with your local body, you just know you haven't seen them in a long while.
Many years ago when I was in college math, we were given an exam. It was awful. During the exam, students were looking up and over at each other, shrugging shoulders, and deeply sighing. Even the "smart kids" were visibly struggling. No on was smiling that day as we walked up to the professors desk and handed him our "completed" exam sheets. The exam was only completed in the sense that it was turned in. Each of us felt like an individual failure. We thought that we were alone in our struggle.
When the math class next assembled the professor (who would go on to become my favorite math professor) took the stack of exams and said something like "It was very apparent that from top to bottom you all suffered through this exam together. No one really did well, so as a whole class this exam will be discarded and not count towards your grade". There were quite a few people who actually clapped and cheered at the news. Our misery turned to gladness. I remembered this story over the last few weeks in reading these various statistics on church attendance.
I've spoken with more than a dozen believers in the United States in the last month alone who all attend different churches, some Catholic, some Baptist, some Presbyterian, some Methodist, some Non-denominational, some Pentecostal, and they all speak of this tread in declined attendance. None of our communities are alone in this experience. This is a tread, it's larger than just your local parish, church, or assembly. While the trend itself is somewhat discouraging, I also hope that our common shared experience of the challenge is somewhat encouraging. You and your fellow local brothers and sisters are not alone in the midst of this storm.
The Lord has not promised us to be free from trials, suffering, or challenges in this world. The Lord has promised his people that He ultimately provides triumph over the world.
31 “Do you now believe?” Jesus replied. 32 “A time is coming and in fact has come when you will be scattered, each to your own home. You will leave me all alone. Yet I am not alone, for my Father is with me.
33 “I have told you these things, so that in me you may have peace. In this world you will have trouble. But take heart! I have overcome the world.” (John 16:31-33)
Tomorrow I'll share some data regarding financial giving in the church.
Citations:
Barna Group. “One in Three Practicing Christians Has Stopped Attending Church During COVID-19 - Barna Group.” Accessed September 20, 2022. https://www.barna.com/research/new-sunday-morning-part-2/.
Inc., Gallup. “U.S. Church Membership Falls Below Majority for First Time.” Gallup.com, March 29, 2021. https://news.gallup.com/poll/341963/church-membership-falls-below-majority-first-time.aspx.
Institute for Family Studies. “The Decline in Church Attendance in COVID America | Institute for Family Studies.” Accessed September 20, 2022. https://ifstudies.org/blog/the-decline-in-church-attendance-in-covid-america.
Zuckerman, Arthur. “60 CHURCH ATTENDANCE STATISTICS: 2020/2021 DATA, TRENDS, & PREDICTIONS,” May 2020. https://comparecamp.com/church-attendance-statistics/#TOC2.
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